Exh Ti pm Ryan

Based on this VF story on Ohio Senator Tim Ryan

The same situation occurred back in 2010. It was slightly different because Congressional Democrats were cut off and left out in the cold by former President Barack Obama after the Affordable Care Act passed and Obama hunkered down for 2012. 

Democrats running attempted to distance themselves from Obama since he was an unpopular president at the time and gave voters a choice that was between a Republican candidate or not a Republican but with Republican ideas/credentials. In an overwhelming fashion, voters chose the Republican in 2010. It was difficult to predict what would have happened in the 2022 midterms since everything felt crazy before them but this looks much familiar.

It felt like there likely would be a 2010 type defeat for the Democratic Establishment but since people truly care about issues like Roe vs Wade that surprisingly overrode that

There are 2 camps that aren’t going to be in pro Democratic.

Those people who were negatively impacted by free trade and the loss of manufacturing jobs. And those people who lost jobs due to not complying with updated workplace hazard requirements. Not every one of these people are hardcore Republicans.

The primary thing that saved the Democrats from a 2010 kind of loss was that there were, thanks to the huge gerrymandering over the last two census cycles (2011/2021), very much less competitive house seats in 2022 as opposed to in 2010 - somewhere in the realm of 30 seats. The Democrats lost the house, but I thought a blowout was unlikely and I was correct. 

The Democrats also actually picked up Senate seats due to a favorable Senate map combined with a few or more pretty weak Republican candidates (like Mehmet Oz in PA and Adam Laxalt in NV).

Before the 2022 midterms, I thought that a reverse of the 2018 election was pretty darn likely. And I was basically correct, the opposition party (Republicans) thanks to the unpopular Joe Biden won a large popular vote victory and took tens of seats in the House, but the incumbent party (Democrats) managed to keep its majority in the Senate.

The Republican gerrymanders actually helped the Democrats this cycle since it gave the Democrats so many seats that they can’t possibly lose.

One of the biggest Democratic excuses after 2022 if they would have lost the Senate (or maybe still will despite keeping the Senate), will be that Republican gerrymanders cost the Democrats seats.

Some Ohioans grew up in small to mid sized steel cities in Northeast Ohio ,firm Democrats due the unions until Donald Trump came along. It was weird for some of them to return home after deployment in 2016 to see Trump stuff all over the place. Tim Ryan had an uphill battle.

For what it's worth, the Republican establishment is not popular in Northeast Ohio either but no person has forgotten about NAFTA and the economic crises over the last few decades. The area is aging also as all of the young people move out of it and they are Tim Ryan's fighting demographics. My personal take is that if Tim Ryan would have focused on minimum wage, strengthening the private sector unions, and abandoning the cultural stuff he would have won, Maybe if the Democrats nationwide adhered to that advice they could have won congress in the 2022 midterms too instead of just the Senate 

People talk about the Transgender issues and the recent racial issues in an almost comical manner. They don't seem really appear to be threatened by that but certainly don't agree with it either. 

The Democrats appear to be very out of touch with people when they talk about pronouns and putting minorities in appointed offices. I'm not claiming that those things are bad its just they don't connect in any way with the average Ohio voter. 

The people liked Donald Trump because he owned the Liberal 2.0ers and establishment Republicans on their b.s. They imho aren't super racist or homophobic or the like, most of them likely voted for Barck Obama. It's upsetting to talk to them since they are more than a bit skeptical. Some manufacturing workers like Massachusetts ones who actually work on a factory floor where things that provide use to people are created would agree with this final paragraph and it could have been lifted directly from their observations there.

Some workers in large DC unloading truck jobs have a transgender or non binary co workers and no one cares or talks about it. At first glance people may be like “oh that’s strange” but it does not matter. Everyone at those type of jobs are only concerned with solid issues like their healthcare and wages/taxes or prices of gas.

This is similar to cargo ship workers with mostly like balkan/filipino crews. Like they may have an extra chief mate come on board for a few of weeks so theirs can catch up on overdue paperwork. The new person maybe was trans male (ftm) and yet there is zero comments about that. Not good, not bad. Nobody gave a hoot. The trans guy maybe is easygoing and good at the job. That was all that matters at jobs. That’s oppression. Workers should be fawning and praising their trans co workers at every opportunity /s

I posted this comment for no other reason than to stroke my ego, I should try not to do it as much, I’ll feel better.

I don't get that strategy as much as I want to by Tim Ryan, the Republicans are going to vote for the Republican every time. And Democrats and people to the left of them will possibly be demotivated to vote for someone that they do not believe in.

I am probably right about the end result, but if Tim Ryan reads that the general partisan environment is not favorable for him as a candidate, then him attempting to make the election more about the individual candidates like himself as a person instead of as a partisan actor is a logical move. It’s a solid strategy to try to negate a poor macro environment

People speak about transgender people like they are almost aliens or something. 99.9 percent of them are mostly normies. It’s a big example of everyone only be attentive to the most fringe, crazy examples of a demographic on social media. Twitter turboposters are not indicative of basically any demographic group

There are firm issues around trans people, like access medical care access and legal protections for stuff like workplace discrimination. Moreover, the GOP is quite loud on trans issues, and they are stuck in a moral panic. At the state level, the GOP are making laws and policies that can be seen as being seen as barbaric, in response to problems which don't exist and things which aren't happening.

Yet, what the Democrats can’t get is that addressing the economic issues, reforms that make the government function more and make Americans feel like economically precarious, is a fine start to the antidote for said problem. When people are afraid and feel like the roof is closing in, they begin to lash out.

Most people are tolerant but at the same time know when to call a spade a spade, as so happens with the woke stuff.

There’s a contrast between merely being tolerant (which most are) and being outwardly accepting and having stuff forced onto them

The online libsheets (and establishment Democrats) put so much energy on the stupid things that Donald Trump said but never questioned for a moment why what he said resonated with voters.

Sherrod Brown has been fortunate to run in three Senate elections that were all held in Democrat years, but the GOP has never been able to truly challenge him. If Sherrod Brown doesn’t retire, (he’s 70) 2024 would be the first time that he faces a headwind in an election. Though, I believe that he can win, despite him sharing the ballot with a Republican Presidential candidate.

Tim Ryan seems to me to be emulating Sherrod Brown. JD Vance is a pretty weak candidate and Ryan is a pretty strong candidate (I’m went back and forth between him and JD Vance). I still gave JD Vance 60 percent chance of winning against Ryan, because Ohio is a Republican state in a somewhat Republican year, and I felt when the rubber met the road, most Republicans would vote for Vance. But, unlike in Rob Portman’s elections, I felt this win would be competitive.

I have a soft place for Sherrod Brown because he might be the only politician in my decades years on Earth who really has consistently fought for the workers and unions in the manufacturing sector in the town similar to the towns in New Jersey that I grew up in. He was a representative from a district not unlike the district I grew up in, before he became Senator.

Sherrod Brown is far from perfect but I think that he authentically cares. He doesn't do a lot of interviews or dumb p.r stunts, and he appears on the picket lines. He also voted against the Iraq War so there's that goodness by him too.

Sherrod Brown may sadly not a leftist, but in labor and economics he is better than the average Democrat.

It's the Democratic Est support for free trade.

Everyone in Ohio was aware that Ohio was getting burned due to NAFTA.

Some lifelong Democrat supporters (even ones interested in Ross Perot) , hated Ronald Reagan but also freaking hated NAFTA for screwing a lot of people.

People who work in the trade businesses or a lot of manual labor know whats up about that junk.

The Democrats only care about specific groups and its becoming blindingly obvious to so many people.

Like those groups are important and they should be taken care of and whatnot but they aren't the only people on Earth and their issues aren't the only important issues.

If there is one thing 45 did it was to speak to disaffected lower class-low middle class voters, it was like  Bernie Sanders in a way. Not similar in what they wanted to accomplish but they did speak to these sorts of people and had immense popular support. The Republicans embraced it and the Democrats discarded it for what looked like the quintessential Washington insider. 45 even smeared her as Crooked Hillary. Even the primary seened crooked.

It was all dine then and they haven’t done anything but move more and more away from most people and are just targeting certain smaller and smaller minority groups only.

The Democrats appear to be really out of touch when they talk about pronouns and putting minorities in appointed offices.

They are quite measly little virtue signalers.

Like when Joe Biden nominated Ketanji Brown Jackson he just had to say "the next justice will be a woman of color"  or however he phrased it.

Which they believe signaled how ‘progressive’ think they are but what it truly said is "I dont care about KBJ’s accomplishments or how good her accomplishments are I just want sex and race thats the most vital thing!" Even if thats not what he meant thats what it sounds like to me. It also gives off the vibe that the job is not fair and not everyone could get that job despite their qualifications. I believe lots of people see that happening in their lives and do not care for it.

I do not care that its an African American woman for justice, I say, just nominate her. Don’t say it. Just do it. If shes an African American woman, great I guess. Let the story be written how great she is and not what her looks are. Just say that you picked the best person for this job and that KBJ is it.

But don't expect people to think high of Joe Biden for saying that your number 1 qualification was sex and race.

Yeah this is pretty on the spot. Look at Republican voters. They got no problem electing women or even African Americans (as long as they have the correct cultural signifiers). They aren't in the business of rewarding you for your progressive virtue signaling.

Now some of the social liberal 2.0 things are honestly stupidly funny/odd, so I understand that. But finally focusing on economics is pretty damn good. I’d likely just go all in on that and move toward the median on social issues- maybe generally tolerant but not necessarily accepting of the oddball stuff.

Tim Ryan: "NAFTA? More like CRAP-TA! Votes plz."

Tim Ryan should have focused on bringing the young people back to the rust belt with good jobs. Missing their kids and grandkids is the path to win older people.

Tim flip-flopped hard on police funding and it is missing from the issues on his website. Paint me skeptical but if you are going to memory hole stuff it doesn't really inspire confidence in campaign promises.

Who knows why it did not work , but I said months ago that Tim Ryan throwing out the Democrat playbook was still def a good first move

Tim Ryan has been against free trade agreements for some time. Here's what he said 6 years back about the Trans Pacific Partnership. I do credit him for that, although if he's caved in on Medicare, then, he may have been co-opted

The shocking part for the majority of people is that Tim Ryan had been a co-sponsor of the bill for so darn long. He's typically seen as a more conservative Democratic, but out of all of the 2020 presidential candidates , he was the only candidate other than Bernie Sanders who had sponsored/co-sponsored the bill before Bernie Sanders 2015-2016 unexpected success. People like Elizabeth Warren, Tulsi Gabbard, Cory Booker, Kristen Gillibrand, Kamala Harris, etc., had never supported prior, but after seing Sanders' success came out to support his signature policy in preparation for a 2020 run for President.

Tim Ryan's first political outlook was never simplistically conservative, though. Probably more so blue collar Catholic. So Ryan started out being against abortions and being pro gun (even receiving donations from the NRA), but also supporting some huge social safety net programs such as Medicare for All, and being against free trade deals because of the impact they have on manufacturing.

I get the inkling that as the political lanes have gotten narrower, so too have Tim Ryan’s positions, so on issues like guns, abortions, and Medicare for all he has moved a lot closer to Liberal 2.0 Democrats. However, opposition to free trade and a willingness to oppose the Democratic establishment are positions that he's held for a long time.

I have seen other manufacturing state Democrats realize that they must adjust to local needs like Tim Ryan did.